Creative Destruction in Baseball: A Deeper Look

In my last post I provided a brief introduction to the concept of creative destruction and how teams and players should consider embracing the principles behind it. The plan for this post is to dig a little deeper into this notion by identifying teams and players who are already reaping the benefits from embracing this mindset as well as examples of failures for not establishing this fundamental.

Read the full article at Banished to the Pen

Creative Destruction in Baseball: Intro

While watching the Angels and Blue Jays game the other day, Blue Jays broadcaster Buck Martinez mentioned that C.J. Wilson had expressed to him before the game that he had re-invented himself six times during his ten year professional career. This reminded me of a term frequently thrown around by economists and corporate leaders called creative destruction. The word sounds like an oxymoron and to a certain extent it is. However, it is a concept that teams and players should embrace especially in this presumed transition period of baseball.

Read the full article at Banished to the Pen

Updated MLB Statcast Data (July 2015)

I am pretty sure by now we all know what Statcast is, have most likely seen it in use, and (for those of us who have been listening to the BttP Podcasts) are aware of its origins. Before the season, I compiled a database of all public MLB Statcast statistics and posted it here. Since then there has been a flurry of data released which warrants an update.

MLBAM is releasing a majority of its Statcast data the same way it released the PitchF/X data, through this pretty little website: http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/. Most of this information on this site looks like mumbo-jumbo, but do not worry. There is another, more efficient and prettier website where you can download the data for free. It goes by the name BaseballSavant.com. Darren Willman, creator of the Savant network of websites, has tapped into the MLBAM website and has graciously made all of this data easily accessible to everyone.

I took my own stab at integrating the xml files from the MLBAM website into my own database. While I was able to successfully connect to the portal and download the info, I ultimately found it much easier to just download the stats from Willmans’s website.

Read the full article at Banished to the Pen

More on Game Theory and Defensive Shifts

Last week, I took a look at defensive shifts and how players could possibly fight back by understanding game theory. We used bunt probability research conducted by Tom Tango to give us a better idea of what types of outcomes could go into our game theory matrix. We then solved for equilibrium to give us a rough estimate of the ratio that batters should bunt or swing away, and the ratio that defenses should shift or not shift. In this post, I will demonstrate a different game theory structure that might be more suited for looking at bunting into the shift.

In the previous post, we used a matrix also known as “normal form” to play the game. This time we will use the extended form also called a “game tree.” This form of game is more conducive to visualizing a sequential game. In a sequential game the first player makes a move and the second player counters. In our example, player one is the defense and player two is the batter.

Read the full article at Banished to the Pen

Beating Defensive Shifts with Game Theory

Barring a rule change outlawing them, it seems defensive shifts are here to stay. In fact, teams are using them increasingly and becoming more efficient at them in the process. This is not a good sign for predictable hitters such as David Ortiz, Brian McCann and the plethora of other pull-happy hitters. Smart baseball minds such as Tom Tango and Bill James have written about ways that hitters can essentially fight back by bunting or simply becoming a more well-rounded hitter. In this post I will attempt to build on some of these findings. More specifically I will be using game theory to help prove that hitters have a way out of their proverbial pickle.

 First, let’s discuss game theory.

 Simply put, game theory is the study of strategic ... Read full article at Banished to the Pen