2015 WSU Projections

WSU Baseball Projected WPct: 68% (39-15)

Calculation as of 11-7-14:
Winning % = runs scored^1.83 / runs scored^1.83 + runs allowed^1.83
Winning % = 312^1.83 / 312^1.83 + 209^1.83 = 67.5%

Ongoing hitting projections for the 2015 Wichita State Baseball team. Logic based on limited past statistical performance and regression to the mean (in this case the mean was calculated from the past three WSU seasons team statistics). Expected plate appearances for each player was derived from previous season's plate appearances with some level of increase or decrease based on individual player evaluations. For new players, plate appearances, and all other statistics, where determined by that player's statistical performance at their previous school. For some players this data was not available and therefore was not included in this forecast.

For exact formulas used visit the following spreadsheet made available here: http://1drv.ms/1tjkKxy

Last update:1-20-2015


Ongoing pitching projections for the 2015 Wichita State Baseball team. Expected innings pitched for each player was derived from previous season's innings pitched with some level of increase or decrease based on individual player evaluations. For new players, innings pitched, and all other statistics, where determined by that player's statistical performance at their previous school. For some players this data was not available and therefore was not included in this forecast.

Last update:1-20-2015



The same predictive model(s) were used to project the 2015 season statistics for the other Missouri Valley baseball teams. The projected wins and losses was based on the teams current number of games scheduled.

BRADLEY Baseball Projected WPct: 64% (32-18)

Calculation as of 11-7-14:
Winning % = runs scored^1.83 / runs scored^1.83 + runs allowed^1.83
Winning % = 289^1.83 / 289^1.83 + 211^1.83 = 64%

Last update:11-7-14


Last update:11-7-14

DALLAS BAPTIST Baseball Projected WPct: 69% (39-17)

Calculation as of 12-15-14:
Winning % = runs scored^1.83 / runs scored^1.83 + runs allowed^1.83
Winning % = 388^1.83 / 388^1.83 + 249^1.83 = 69%

Last update:12-15-14


Last update:12-15-14

EVANSVILLE Baseball Projected WPct: 65%

(35-19)

Calculation as of 1-3-15:
Winning % = runs scored^1.83 / runs scored^1.83 + runs allowed^1.83
Winning % = 328^1.83 / 328^1.83 + 236^1.83 = 65%



Last update:1-3-15

MISSOURI STATE Baseball Projected WPct: 61%

(33-22)

Calculation as of 1-8-15:
Winning % = runs scored^1.83 / runs scored^1.83 + runs allowed^1.83
Winning % = 285^1.83 / 285^1.83 + 223^1.83 = 61%



Last update:1-8-15

INDIANA STATE Baseball Projected WPct: NA

(0-0)

I could not accurately project Runs and Runs Allowed as Indiana State does not have an updated baseball roster for 2015 and therefore could not project Winning Percentage. The below projections should be looked at on a player by player basis. The players listed are those that were assumed to still be on the team. All new players to the roster for 2015 are not included.

Calculation as of 1-16-15
Winning % = runs scored^1.83 / runs scored^1.83 + runs allowed^1.83
Winning % = 0^1.83 / 0^1.83 + 0^1.83 = NA



Last update:1-16-15

ILLINOIS STATE Baseball Projected WPct: 68%

(36-18)

Calculation as of 1-16-15
Winning % = runs scored^1.83 / runs scored^1.83 + runs allowed^1.83
Winning % = 312^1.83 / 312^1.83 + 205^1.83 = 68%



Last update:1-18-15

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS Baseball Projected WPct: 55%

(30-25)

Calculation as of 1-31-15
Winning % = runs scored^1.83 / runs scored^1.83 + runs allowed^1.83
Winning % = 255^1.83 / 255^1.83 + 227^1.83 = 55%



Last update:1-31-15